NFL Week 6: tight matchups

Quick note: we went 3-0 last week, thanks for reading :)

Took ALMOST all road teams again this week 😳 ...worked last week!

Early Games:

Niners -9 @ Browns

Niners DISMANTLED the Cowboys at home last week...and frankly they may be getting a little cocky so a surprise loss is on the horizon...but not likely this week in Cleveland.

The Browns are in no way prepared for the Niners on either side of the ball. This is a 10pt game by half time.

Two things the Browns have going for them:

• their defense

• the weather

The Browns D is pretty highly ranked, but gave up 28pts to the Ravens before their bye week, and 26pts to a weak Steelers team. Those teams don't have the youth, talent, or coaching that the Niners have.

Supposed to be some rain in Cleveland today...but if that means the game is on the ground more...Niners still destroy them.

Colts +4 @ Jaguars

This is actually a tight matchup, by records, stats, almost any way you look at it. The biggest edge the Jags have is in rush defense. HOWEVER, the Colts are ramping Jonathan Taylor back up after getting his contract done AND Zach Moss (the "other" RB) had an insane week last week. So suffice to say they have 2 fresh backs ready to test that run defense.

Also, I like Gardner Menshew in for the Colts with Anthony Richardson out this week. Remember Gardner came from Jacksonville so he has had a week to prepare knowing he's the starting QB, and against his old team.

Give me the Colts with an extra 4pts to cover what could be a field goal-decided game.

Falcons -1 vs Commanders @ ATL

Look. I don't like betting on the Falcons...they're messy this year at best. However, they're coming off a solid Desmond Ridder performance last week, and tend to play well at home (3-0 at home this year).

Meanwhile the Commanders haven't seen a W since they played the Broncos FOUR weeks ago...yes, the "automatic W on the schedule" Broncos. So the last legit(ish) win was 5 weeks ago vs the Cardinals at home.

Falcons defense likely controls this game, and give Ridder a chance to repeat with a solid week this week. Give me Falcons in essentially a pick 'em game -1pt.

**I bet each of these games individually AND parlayed them**

Late Games:

Lions -3 @ Bucanneers

Post is getting long, so I'll just say:

• the Lions have "it" this year and the Bucs don't

• Look at stats or whatever you want, Lions have the edge in almost every way.

• Baker Mayfield is good for 1-2 INTs today that should help the Lions get out to a lead and hold it.

• 3-1 is a deceiving record for the Bucs, with wins against Vikings (weak), Bears (were even weaker in Week 2 when they played), and Saints (very very weak this year - Derek Carr was playing hurt for the Saints that day).

• This will be the toughest matchup for the Bucs since they lost to the Eagles 25-11 in week 3.

GOOD LUCK TODAY!

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